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But that is correct. The issue is that people who develop.isulin sensitivity don’t feel satiated so they eat more. It a vicious cycle. Also, when you eat a high amount of refined sugar your body will generally hold more water.
“Calories in - calories out < 0” will still be true if you eat nothing but table sugar. Sure, you’ll feel like shit, but you’re body will still have to draw on your body fat to make up the difference.
If you’re interested in an experiment along these lines, look up Mark Haub, and in particular his interview with Layne Norton.
Like anything in biochemistry, the answer is complicated. That is really the biggest problem with calories in/calories out.
Being able to lose stored fat is all about whether you are in a metabolic state that allows you to effectively burn that stored fat. That essentially comes down to being in a low insulin state.
Then you have the opportunity to lose fat. Or to be clearer, you have the opportunity for your natural weight-regulation system to work; your body doesn’t want to carry around a lot of extra fat, though what “a lot” means varies from person to person and between sexes.
If you are somewhat insulin sensitive, you can stop snacking on junk food and cut down your input a bit and lose weight. That’s what the people who say “it’s easy to lose weight, just eat less” experience.
If you are insulin resistant, your insulin is high and that makes it hard for your body to burn stored fat. You eat less and your body actively rebels as it can’t burn fat; you get cold, tired, and hungry. And your body burns down your muscle mass to try to keep up.
The problem with CICO is that it’s not a driver for weight loss, it’s a result. If you eat in a way that allows you to effectively burn your stored fat, you will be in a calorie deficit and lose weight.
But just eating less does not put you in that metabolic state.
Energy balance determines the total amount of energy stored on your body, not fat. The formula for fat would be something like:
Change in fat = Fat eaten + de novo lipogenesis - (fat burned + fat converted into something else)